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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

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Market Commentary

Dow Jones Futures: Inflation Data, Nvidia Earnings Due; Robinhood In Buy Area

Oil prices have edged lower as the market reacts to a combination of factors, including inflation data and corporate earnings reports. The decline in oil prices is contributing to a broader stock market rally, as investors are encouraged by lower yields. This environment suggests that inflation concerns may be easing, which could lead to a more favorable outlook for energy demand. However, the upcoming Federal Reserve inflation data will be critical in shaping market sentiment and could influence oil prices further. If inflation shows signs of cooling, it may bolster economic growth expectations, thereby increasing demand for oil. Conversely, any unexpected inflationary pressures could lead to volatility in both oil and equity markets. Additionally, Nvidia's earnings report is generating interest, as strong performance in tech can signal broader economic health, indirectly affecting energy consumption patterns. Investors should remain vigilant, as fluctuations in oil prices can have cascading effects on energy stocks and overall market dynamics. The interplay between inflation data and oil prices will be crucial in determining the trajectory of energy markets in the near term. As the market digests these developments, the focus will remain on how these factors influence both supply and demand in the oil sector.

Market Commentary

Stocks edge higher as oil drops on fresh Mideast hopes

Oil prices are experiencing a decline as optimism grows regarding reduced tensions between the United States and Iran, alleviating fears of a military escalation in the Middle East. This easing of geopolitical risks is contributing to a more stable outlook for oil supply, which is reflected in the market's response. As concerns about potential disruptions in oil production diminish, traders are adjusting their positions, leading to lower prices. Meanwhile, the broader market is reacting positively, with Asian stocks edging higher, indicating a shift in investor sentiment. However, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and Canada are injecting a layer of uncertainty into the market, which could have implications for energy demand and economic growth. Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, particularly US inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy and, in turn, impact oil demand. The interplay between these factors suggests that while immediate geopolitical risks may be subsiding, underlying economic conditions remain a critical focus for energy markets. As oil prices drop, it will be essential for traders to assess how these developments might affect future demand and supply dynamics. Overall, the current environment presents a complex landscape for oil investors, balancing geopolitical relief against economic uncertainties.

Market Commentary

ONE Gas (OGS) On Rising Gas Demand And Infrastructure Spending With Valuation In Focus

ONE Gas (OGS) is gaining attention as a potential beneficiary of increasing US natural gas demand and ongoing infrastructure investments within regulated utility networks. The company has demonstrated a solid total shareholder return of 10.36% over the past year, indicating a stable performance amid market fluctuations. Currently priced at $80.41, OGS is positioned well as modest earnings estimate upgrades and strategic infrastructure spending plans bolster its appeal to investors. This environment of rising gas demand suggests a favorable outlook for natural gas prices, which could enhance the profitability of companies like ONE Gas. As infrastructure spending ramps up, it is likely to support not only OGS but also its peers, such as Atmos Energy and MDU Resources, creating a ripple effect across the sector. Investors should consider the implications of these developments on the broader energy market, particularly as natural gas continues to play a crucial role in the transition to cleaner energy sources. The focus on infrastructure investment is critical, as it can lead to improved delivery capabilities and increased capacity to meet rising demand. This scenario may also attract more capital into the sector, further driving valuations upward. Overall, the combination of rising demand and infrastructure investment positions ONE Gas favorably in the current energy landscape, making it a stock worth monitoring closely for potential growth opportunities.

Market Commentary

Oil Falls Near 3% as Iran, Oman Restart Hormuz Corridor Talks

Oil prices fell over 3% as Iran and Oman resumed discussions regarding a temporary shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. This development signals a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, which could lead to increased supply stability in the region. Investors are likely reacting to the prospect of reduced risks associated with shipping disruptions, which have historically supported higher oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz is vital for the transport of a significant portion of the world's oil, and any agreements that enhance security and facilitate smoother operations can have a direct impact on market sentiment. Additionally, the resumption of talks may indicate a willingness among regional players to engage diplomatically, further alleviating fears of conflict that can drive prices up. As a result, the market is adjusting to the potential for a more stable supply environment, which could dampen bullish sentiment. Traders should closely monitor the outcomes of these discussions, as any concrete agreements could lead to further price declines. Conversely, if negotiations falter or tensions escalate, we could see a swift reversal in market dynamics. Overall, the current drop in oil prices reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical developments and market expectations regarding supply security.

Market Commentary

Norwegian company to spend nearly $1 billion on stake in Jessup power plant

Equinor ASA's decision to invest nearly $1 billion in the Lackawanna Energy Center underscores the increasing demand for natural gas as a reliable energy source, particularly driven by the burgeoning electricity needs of data centers. This substantial investment reflects a strategic move to bolster energy infrastructure in response to evolving market dynamics. The 1,485-megawatt capacity of the Jessup plant positions it as a significant player in the regional energy landscape, likely enhancing supply stability in the face of rising consumption. As natural gas continues to be a preferred choice for power generation, this acquisition could influence pricing dynamics in the energy sector, particularly if it leads to increased production or efficiency improvements. Investors should note that such investments signal confidence in the long-term viability of natural gas, especially as the transition to renewable energy sources unfolds. The involvement of a major player like Equinor, backed by a BlackRock subsidiary, also highlights the growing interest from institutional investors in energy assets that promise stable returns amid fluctuating market conditions. This trend may further attract capital into the sector, potentially driving up valuations for similar energy projects. Additionally, as natural gas prices remain sensitive to supply and demand fluctuations, this acquisition could have ripple effects on pricing strategies across the broader energy market. Overall, the move reinforces the importance of natural gas in meeting future energy demands while also indicating a shift in investment strategies towards more sustainable and reliable energy sources.

Market Commentary

Gold Holds Five-Day Gain as Oil Drop Eases Inflation Concerns

Gold's five-day gain reflects a broader market sentiment as lower oil prices contribute to easing inflation concerns. The recent drop in oil prices is significant, as it directly impacts inflation metrics that investors closely monitor. With US Treasury yields declining alongside oil prices, the financial landscape appears more favorable for risk assets, including gold. The discussions between Iran and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz add a layer of geopolitical complexity that could influence oil supply dynamics. A stable Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil transportation, and any resolution could further stabilize or even lower oil prices. Investors should be aware that lower oil prices typically translate to reduced production costs, which can bolster economic growth and consumer spending. This environment may lead to increased demand for energy, potentially offsetting some of the recent price declines. However, if geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly in the Middle East, oil prices could rebound sharply. The interplay between these factors suggests that while gold may benefit from current trends, the energy market remains susceptible to sudden shifts. Overall, the current landscape indicates a cautious optimism, but vigilance is necessary as geopolitical developments unfold.

Company NewsAugust 26, 2026

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) Have Exploded in 2026. But Barron’s Sees More Upside

US refining stocks are rallying at full speed. The country’s two largest refiners, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) have both more than doubled in value since the beginning of 2026. The impressive gains are driven by an unusually sharp surge in global refining margins as the ongoing disruptions have significantly reduced […]

Company NewsAugust 26, 2026

Morgan Stanley Sees ExxonMobil (XOM) Breaking its Record High. Can the Oil Giant Deliver?

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is the largest oil company in the United States, and one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world. The stock hit an all-time high earlier in March and has gained more than 34% this year, fuelled by soaring energy prices and solid earnings amid the disruptions in the Middle […]

Company NewsAugust 25, 2026

Tuktu Resources: Second Quarter 2026 Results

(TSXV:TUK) Tuktu Resources Ltd. announced its financial and operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. Petroleum and natural gas sales were $1,447,291 for the three months ended June 30, 2026, and $2,888,357 for the six months ended June 30, 2026. Production volumes averaged 393 boe/d (70% natural gas, 30% crude oil) in Q2 2026, a decrease of 37% from 622 boe/d in Q2 2025. Oil production decreased to 116 bbl/d during the quarter, compared to 298 bbl/d in the comparable period in 2025. The company's low decline natural gas assets contributed 1,662 mcf/d compared to 1,943 mcf/d in Q2 of the prior year. Operating netbacks increased to $10.09/boe from $9.66/boe in 2025. The company sold its remaining 10% working interest in the Isintok property.

Company NewsAugust 25, 2026

Critical Minerals Group Positions for Downstream Vanadium Market

(ASX:CMG) Critical Minerals Group is advancing a mine-to-market strategy focused on battery-grade vanadium, targeting both primary extraction and downstream energy storage applications. The company is building an integrated supply chain anchored by its flagship Lindfield Vanadium Project in north-west Queensland, with plans for downstream electrolyte production. The Lindfield Vanadium Project holds a JORC resource estimate of 713 Mt @ 0.32% V₂O₅ (vanadium pentoxide). Production plans target approximately 10,000 tonnes per annum of V₂O₅, accompanied by molybdenum by-product processing (~400 tpa). The company has proposed establishing a specialised vanadium electrolyte manufacturing facility located at the Parkes Special Activation Precinct in New South Wales. The company reported a pre-tax NPV of AUD $821 million and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 26.6% for the integrated operations. Initial capital expenditure for the mine and downstream facility is estimated at AUD $981 million, with estimated peak funding of AUD $736 million.

Company NewsAugust 25, 2026

80 Mile: European Sustainability Accreditation

(AIM:80M) 80 Mile PLC announced that its 100% owned subsidiary Hydrogen Valley has secured both the Italian National Sustainability Certification Scheme (INS) and the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) for the Greenswitch S.r.l. Ferrandina biodiesel facility in southern Italy. These certifications confirm that products from the Ferrandina plant meet the sustainability, traceability and greenhouse gas emissions-saving criteria required under Italian and European Union renewable fuels regulations. The combination of INS and ISCC certification enables Greenswitch's products to qualify for "double counting" treatment under the Italian biodiesel obligation system and for the associated Certificati di Immissione in Consumo (CIC) regime administered by the GSE. Based on recent market values for advanced CICs, qualifying product has commonly attracted a material premium, often in the order of €300-500+ per tonne depending on feedstock, GHG savings and prevailing certificate prices. 80 Mile's Jameson Project covers 8,429km2 across three licences in East Greenland and represents one of the world's largest remaining untapped gas and liquids-rich basins, with an independent 2025 assessment by Sproule ERCE estimating the basin contains 13.03 billion barrels (P10) of recoverable oil, with 80 Mile's retained interest equating to 3.9 billion barrels. In 2025, a milestone agreement with March GL (to be renamed Greenland Energy Co, NASDAQ: GLND) enabled plans for two fully funded 3,500-metre drill holes into the basin. The Dundas Project, located on Greenland's northwest coast, has a JORC-compliant Mineral Resource of 117 million tonnes at 6.1% ilmenite, with a late-2024 maiden exploration target of up to 540 million tonnes of additional ilmenite-bearing material.

Company NewsAugust 25, 2026

Tethys Petroleum: Interim Results and Corporate Update

(TSXV:TPL) Tethys Petroleum Limited announced that it has filed its interim results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities comprising its Unaudited Financial Statements together with Management's Discussion and Analysis and other required forms. Oil and gas sales increased by 70% to $10.4 million in the second quarter of 2026 from $6.1 million in 2025 due to increased oil production and commencing processing crude oil into refined products during the quarter. The net loss for the period was $.01 million compared with the net profit of $1.3 million in 2025. Revenues for Q2 improved from Q2 2025 but oil production levels fell short of expectations due primarily to technical failures in gas turbines. The Company has purchased a second gas compressor, which is currently being installed at the Kul-Bas Central Processing Facility. Average oil production in August is currently estimated to be approximately 275 tons per day (2,200 bopd). Assuming the successful repair of one of the gas turbines by the end of August, average daily oil production is expected to increase to approximately 420 tons per day (3,360 bopd). Subsequently, following the repair of the second gas turbine and commissioning of the second gas compressor, average daily oil production is expected to further increase to approximately 645 tons per day (5,160 bopd) in October.

Market CommentaryAugust 25, 2026

Ukraine Attacks Oil Refinery, Gas Plant in Russia

The attack on an oil refinery and gas-processing plant in Russia by Ukraine signifies a critical escalation in the ongoing conflict, with immediate implications for global energy prices and market stability. Such actions can disrupt supply chains and raise concerns about the reliability of Russian energy exports, particularly as Europe continues to navigate its dependence on Russian oil and gas. This incident could lead to heightened geopolitical tensions, prompting traders to price in risk premiums that could push Brent crude prices above recent resistance levels. Additionally, any significant damage to these facilities could exacerbate the already tight supply situation in the global oil market, especially as OPEC+ continues to manage production cuts to support prices. The potential for retaliatory measures from Russia could further complicate the energy landscape, leading to fears of broader supply disruptions. Furthermore, this attack could catalyze a shift in energy procurement strategies among European nations, accelerating the transition to alternative sources and renewables, which would have long-term implications for oil demand. As the conflict unfolds, the market will be closely monitoring any retaliatory actions or countermeasures that could impact production capabilities. Investors should brace for volatility, as the interplay between military actions and energy supply dynamics could lead to unpredictable price swings in the short term. Overall, this incident underscores the fragility of the current energy market and the profound impact geopolitical events can have on oil prices and supply-demand fundamentals.

Market CommentaryAugust 25, 2026

Hormuz Crisis Boosts Appeal of $42 Billion Tanzania LNG Project

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz significantly enhances the attractiveness of the $42 billion Tanzania LNG project, as energy investors increasingly seek alternatives to the volatile Middle Eastern supply routes. With tensions disrupting liquefied natural gas flows through this critical chokepoint, the urgency for reliable and stable energy sources is paramount, positioning Tanzania as a potential key player in the global LNG market. Equinor's recognition of this opportunity underscores a broader shift in investment strategies, as companies pivot towards projects that promise security and resilience against geopolitical risks. However, the protracted negotiations between Equinor, Shell, and Tanzanian authorities present a cautionary tale; while the crisis amplifies the project's appeal, the lack of progress over the years raises concerns about its feasibility and timeline. The urgency to develop alternative supply chains could lead to increased competition for resources and investment in regions previously overlooked, thereby reshaping global LNG dynamics. As energy prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, any delays in advancing the Tanzania LNG project could exacerbate supply constraints, pushing prices higher in the short term. Furthermore, the crisis may catalyze a reevaluation of energy security policies among importing nations, prompting them to diversify their energy portfolios further. In this context, the potential of Tanzania's LNG becomes not just a matter of economic opportunity, but a strategic imperative for energy security in a world increasingly fraught with geopolitical uncertainties. As the market watches closely, the interplay between supply disruptions and the pace of project development will be critical in determining future price trajectories and investment flows in the LNG sector.

Market CommentaryAugust 25, 2026

Oil Down as Traders Weigh US Sanctions Threat Against Iran

The recent decline in oil prices reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions and market sentiment, particularly regarding the United States' shifting strategy towards Iran. As traders digest the implications of potential economic sanctions rather than immediate military action, the market has reacted by easing fears of supply disruptions that would typically drive prices higher. The absence of a clear timeline or specific targets for these sanctions creates uncertainty, which can lead to volatility but also suggests that immediate threats to oil supply from the region may be less acute than previously feared. This situation underscores the delicate balance that exists in the oil market, where geopolitical risks can quickly shift sentiment and influence pricing. Furthermore, the prospect of sanctions could still have longer-term implications for Iranian oil exports, which, if fully enforced, could tighten global supply and support prices in the future. However, for now, the market appears to be prioritizing short-term stability over long-term risks, leading to a cautious approach among investors. The broader macroeconomic picture remains influenced by OPEC's production decisions and the ongoing recovery in global demand. As traders weigh these factors, the current dip in prices may present a buying opportunity for those anticipating a tighter market as geopolitical tensions evolve. Ultimately, the situation demands close monitoring, as any escalation in U.S.-Iran relations could quickly reverse the current trend and lead to significant price spikes.