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Wednesday, August 19, 2026

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Market Commentary

Tech leads losses as Asian stocks track Wall St selloff

Oil prices are approaching the $90 per barrel mark, driven by a combination of rising demand and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz. This increase in oil prices is contributing to heightened inflationary pressures, which are causing concern among investors. As inflation remains persistent, the potential for a prolonged economic impact is becoming more pronounced, leading to a selloff in technology stocks and broader market volatility. The spike in bond yields is also influencing market sentiment, as higher yields typically signal increased borrowing costs and can dampen economic growth. Investors should be wary of how these dynamics could affect energy markets, particularly if oil prices continue to rise. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical, as any disruption in this vital shipping lane could exacerbate supply concerns and push prices even higher. With OPEC's production decisions and U.S. output levels also in focus, the interplay between supply and demand will be crucial in determining future price movements. Refinery capacity and inventory levels will further influence market stability, as any disruptions could lead to tighter supplies. Overall, the current environment suggests that oil prices may remain elevated, with inflationary pressures likely to persist in the near term.

Market Commentary

Why are bond yields surging, and why does it matter?

Bond yields are surging to multi-decade highs, driven primarily by a mismatch between buyers and sellers in the bond market. Investors are increasingly wary of ballooning government deficits in developed economies, particularly in the US, Japan, and Europe, leading them to demand higher compensation for lending to these governments. This situation is exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are contributing to rising oil prices and expectations of prolonged inflation. As inflation erodes the real returns on bonds, investors are further incentivized to seek higher yields, pushing bond prices down and yields up. Additionally, the tech sector's aggressive borrowing to fund expansion is flooding the bond market with new supply, competing with traditional government and bank debt. This influx of supply, coupled with a lack of sufficient demand, is driving yields higher. The implications of rising government borrowing costs are significant; as more funds are allocated to interest payments, less is available for essential services like defense and social programs. Corporations taking on more debt will also face increased interest costs, which could squeeze their profit margins. This dynamic often leads to a correlation between the bond and equity markets, where a downturn in bonds can trigger a sell-off in stocks. Investors should closely monitor these trends, as the rising bond yields could signal broader economic challenges that may impact energy demand and pricing. Overall, the current bond market environment suggests a tightening financial landscape that could have ripple effects throughout the energy sector.

Market Commentary

Oil Prices Rise for Fourth Day as Hormuz Traffic Slows

Crude oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive day, with Brent crude now trading at $91.53 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $85.47 per barrel. This upward momentum is largely driven by a slowdown in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The recent escalation in rhetoric from both Iran and the United States indicates a deteriorating diplomatic situation, with neither side showing interest in resuming negotiations. This geopolitical tension raises concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, which typically supports higher prices. The expiration of the June ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran, which had already begun to fray in early July, adds to the uncertainty in the market. Investors should be wary of the implications of these developments, as any further escalation could lead to significant supply constraints. Additionally, the market is reacting to these geopolitical risks amid ongoing concerns about global demand and inflationary pressures. As refinery capacity remains a critical factor, any disruptions in supply could exacerbate existing tightness in the market. Overall, the combination of geopolitical tensions and slowing traffic through a vital shipping lane is likely to keep upward pressure on oil prices in the near term.

Market Commentary

ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) Awards Rovuma LNG Contracts, Does It Look Fully Valued?

ExxonMobil's recent awarding of approximately $1.1 billion in pre-investment contracts for the Rovuma LNG Phase 1 project signals a significant advancement in its Mozambique operations, which could enhance its long-term production capabilities. This move comes amid a backdrop of robust activity for the company, including the establishment of 20-year midstream agreements in the Permian Basin, underscoring its commitment to expanding infrastructure and production capacity. The uptick in ExxonMobil's share price reflects investor confidence, bolstered by record production levels and strong free cash flow reported in recent weeks. As ExxonMobil continues to invest heavily in both LNG and domestic production, it positions itself favorably in a market that is increasingly focused on energy security and diversification. The ongoing development of the Rovuma project could also play a crucial role in meeting global LNG demand, particularly as Europe seeks alternatives to Russian gas supplies. However, investors should consider whether the current valuation fully reflects these growth prospects, especially in light of potential geopolitical risks and fluctuating energy prices. The overall sentiment in the energy market remains cautious, with OPEC's production decisions and U.S. output levels continuing to influence price dynamics. As demand signals fluctuate and inflationary pressures persist, the energy sector must navigate these complexities while maintaining profitability. The interplay between ExxonMobil's strategic investments and broader market conditions will be critical in determining its future valuation and impact on oil prices.

Market Commentary

Shares fall in Asia, with Kospi down 5.7%, while oil prices jump

Oil prices have jumped despite a significant decline in Asian shares, with the Kospi down 5.7% and the Nikkei 225 falling 3.2%. This divergence suggests that investors are seeking refuge in crude amid broader market volatility, particularly as concerns over rising bond yields and a sell-off in technology stocks weigh heavily on equities. The decline in major tech stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix indicates a shift in investor sentiment, which often leads to increased interest in commodities like oil as a hedge against market instability. Additionally, the current geopolitical landscape remains supportive of higher oil prices, with ongoing tensions in key producing regions and supply chain disruptions. As inflationary pressures persist, the dollar's strength could also play a role in oil price fluctuations, but the immediate demand signals appear robust. Inventory data has shown tightening supplies, further bolstering the case for higher prices. Refinery capacity utilization remains a critical factor, and any disruptions could exacerbate the upward pressure on crude. Investors should closely monitor these dynamics, as they could lead to increased volatility in the energy markets. Overall, the current environment suggests that oil prices may continue to rise as market participants navigate the complexities of both the equity and energy landscapes.

Market Commentary

S&P Global Energy's Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) to Address Supply Chain Disruptions and Asia's Evolving Energy Landscape

The upcoming Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) is set to gather 1,500 industry leaders to tackle pressing issues such as supply chain disruptions and the evolving energy landscape in Asia. This focus on supply chain challenges is particularly relevant as global energy markets continue to grapple with the impacts of geopolitical tensions and pandemic-related disruptions. The conference will likely highlight the shifting trade corridors that are reshaping how energy is sourced and distributed, which could lead to increased volatility in oil prices. As Asia's energy demands grow, the commercial realities of securing reliable energy supplies will become even more critical, potentially driving up competition among nations and companies. Investors should be aware that discussions at APPEC could influence future OPEC decisions, especially if new trade dynamics emerge that affect member countries' production strategies. Additionally, any insights into how Asia plans to navigate these challenges could signal shifts in demand patterns that impact global oil consumption. The focus on a fragmented energy landscape suggests that traditional supply routes may be under pressure, which could lead to higher transportation costs and ultimately affect crude prices. As the conference approaches, market participants will be keenly watching for any announcements or insights that could provide clarity on these evolving dynamics. Overall, the outcomes of APPEC could have significant implications for both short-term price movements and long-term investment strategies in the energy sector.

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Slip On Rising Yields And Costly Energy

The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Wednesday, Aug, 19 2026 US stock futures are pointing lower this morning, with S&P 500 contracts down around 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures weaker by more than 1%. The key driver is a global rise in government bond yields, including the US 10 year moving toward the 4.7% to 4.75% range, which means borrowing money is getting more expensive again for households and companies. At the same time, commodity futures are firmer, with a broad index up about...

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

Restoration of Listing

(LSE/AIM:MODE) R8 Capital Investments Plc announced that the suspension of the Company's ordinary shares from listing in the Equity Shares (Shell Companies) Category of the Official List of the Financial Conduct Authority has been lifted and that trading in the Company's ordinary shares on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange has now resumed.

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

What Investors Might Be Missing On PBF Energy (PBF)

Recent insider activity at PBF Energy (PBF) has drawn fresh attention after Senior Vice President Wendy Ho Tai exercised stock options for 12,094 shares valued at about US$734,710, according to a new SEC filing. See our latest analysis for PBF Energy. The recent insider options exercise comes after a strong run in PBF Energy's share price, with a 30 day share price return of 19.84% and a year to date share price return of 163.58%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 228.61% highlights how...

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

Announcement of 2026 Interim Dividend

(LON:ITH) Ithaca Energy plc announced its first interim dividend for 2026 of $255 million, representing $0.1542 per ordinary share. The first interim dividend will be paid on 24 September 2026 to shareholders on the share register on 4 September 2026. Sterling dividends payable will be converted from US dollars at the average of the mid-point of the market exchange rate on 2 September, 3 September and 4 September 2026. The Group will confirm the foreign exchange rate and the amount of the Sterling dividend payable in pence per share on 7 September 2026. Ithaca Energy plc was admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange (LON: ITH) on 14 November 2022. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (the "UKCS") by production and resources. Ithaca Energy has stakes in six of the ten largest fields in the UKCS and two of UKCS's largest pre-development fields.

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

Venezuela Signs Oil Deals With SLB and Hunt to Boost Production

Venezuela has signed deals with oilfield service major SLB and Hunt Oil Co. as part of efforts to boost investment in its key energy industry, Bloomberg reported, citing a TV statement made by the South American country’s oil minister, Paula Henao. One of the deals involves development of two fields and the other is a framework deal with SLB for “services related to integrated reservoir studies throughout the country,” according to the statement. The deal with SLB follows earlier reports about the oilfield services company sealing…

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

Energy Transfer (ET) Stock Looks Reasonable On Earnings But Stretched On Broader Checks

Energy Transfer stock has delivered a very strong 5 year return, yet the current valuation picture is more nuanced, with the shares screening as undervalued on market multiples while the broader checks give only a mixed signal. Energy Transfer has returned 240.7% over 5 years, which puts recent enthusiasm for the stock in clear focus for anyone thinking about new capital going in at today’s price. Future cash generation from its midstream asset base can support the current market view, while...

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

Equinor Enters Namibia With Stake in Chevron-Operated Offshore Block

Equinor is entering Namibia’s offshore oil sector through a minority stake in a Chevron-operated Orange Basin exploration licence.

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Is Up 8.9% After Near Record Refinery Utilization and Strong Margins - What's Changed

In recent months, Marathon Petroleum has reported exceptionally strong quarterly results, running its refineries near record capacity as fuel shortages and high refining margins emerge amid the Iran war and broader crude supply disruptions. This operating performance, combined with sector-wide earnings strength and commentary that refiners were mispriced, has sharpened investor focus on how long elevated refining conditions and infrastructure investments can support Marathon’s business...

Company NewsAugust 19, 2026

5 Energy Stocks Cashing In On The New Energy Crunch

The Iran war has created an extraordinary earnings season for U.S. refiners. Brent crude has fallen to around $90 per barrel from a wartime peak of $126, but the shortage of refined fuels has only deepened. According to Reuters, Global refinery throughput in July was nearly 5 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels as Middle Eastern refineries remained constrained and Ukrainian attacks pushed Russian processing close to a 20-year low. U.S. refiners have stepped into the gap, running at or near record utilization rates and exporting more…

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Oil edges higher as Iranian attacks on ships in Strait of Hormuz without U.S. response rise

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

The U.S. Is Quietly Building a New Energy Foothold in Iraq

There have been perhaps a handful of events since the end of the Second World War that have fundamentally reshaped the world’s oil markets and consequently its geopolitics while remaining largely unnoticed at the time. The quiet agreement between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud struck on 14 February 1945 that would define the energy, economic, political and military relationship between the two countries until the rise of American shale in the early 2010s is one, as analysed in my latest…

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

AI Could Make Big Oil Even Bigger

AI is changing energy systems, but data centers are only a small part of the impact. Much has been written and said about how the data center and AI boom are consuming and will consume increasingly higher shares of global electricity demand, and grids are struggling to meet soaring demand. Fossil Fuel Gains Could Outweigh Emissions Cuts from Renewables Arguably, a fundamental change in the energy system may not come from surging power demand, but from the efficiencies and productivity gains AI will help energy companies achieve, according to a…

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Evolution Petroleum to buy Permian Basin assets in $16M deal, launches stock offering

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Exxon Stock Surges 2.3% as Oil Breaks Above $91

Exxon gains as crude prices rise amid Iran tensions while record production and $17.2 billion free cash flow support results.

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Higher Late Afternoon

Energy stocks gained late Tuesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 1.1% and the S

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Tamarack Valley Energy initiated Buy at Jefferies on 'compelling' cash flow growth

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. reports Q2 results

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Proposed Canadian crude oil pipeline projects

(BOE Report) A series of new Canadian crude oil export pipeline projects could help the world’s fourth-largest oil producer [ ]

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Phillips 66 stock hits 52-week high as pipeline deal adds to rally

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

U.S. shale majors cut spending despite higher oil prices

(Oil Price) U.S. oil companies dominating the shale patch are planning to trim their spending plans and instead take [ ]

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

SLB secures contract to restore offshore production for Brunei Shell Petroleum

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Volt Carbon Advances Graphite-to-Graphene and Expandable Graphite Manufacturing Platform

(TSXV: VCT) (OTCQB: TORVF) Volt Carbon Technologies Inc. has developed a flexible downstream manufacturing process at its Guelph, Ontario facility and has produced multiple batches of graphene oxide and expandable graphite for product trials. The process is designed to operate downstream from Volt's proprietary air classification technology and can be configured to produce either graphene oxide or expandable graphite. Volt has advanced its graphene manufacturing process from approximately five-layer reduced graphene oxide to approximately three graphene layers, as indicated by recent XRD characterization at University of Waterloo laboratories. Independent testing by ProGraphite GmbH of graphite processed using Volt's dry separation technology achieved an expansion rate of 325 mL/g and approximately 98.5% carbon after expansion. Additional equipment ordered to support batch-scale production of graphene-based materials and expandable graphite has arrived at Volt's Guelph facility and is being incorporated into the Company's downstream processing capabilities. In previous epoxy testing, a 0.5% loading of graphene represents approximately 5 kg per tonne of finished composite. Volt Carbon holds mineral interests in Quebec and British Columbia, Canada, and operates facilities supporting both carbon material processing and battery technology development.

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

International Frontier Resources Corporation and Kinjal Corporation Announce Execution of the Definitive Sale and Purchase Agreements for the Acquisition of Mision Field

(TSXV: IFR) International Frontier Resources Corporation's wholly owned subsidiary, Petro Frontera, has executed definitive sale and purchase agreements with Tecpetrol Operaciones and Industrial Perforadora de Campeche for the acquisition of 100% of the share capital of Servicios Múltiples de Burgos, S.A. de C.V., which holds the Misión Field asset. SMB is the operator and holder of a 49% working interest, and together with partner PEMEX, holds the contract with the Secretariat of Energy of the United Mexican States for the Exploration and Extraction of Hydrocarbons under the modality of a Production-Sharing Arrangement CNH-M3-Misión/2018, dated March 2, 2018. Misión is the largest privately operated natural gas field on land in Mexico, currently producing approximately 60 MMcf/d gross (10,000 boepd gross) with condensate volumes. There is potential to restore production toward ~120 MMcf/d gross (20,000 boepd gross) through development drilling, recompletion program, and field optimization. Both sale and purchase agreements (for 24.5% and 24.5% respectively) have been executed on substantially similar terms. PF and Tecpetrol have also executed a detailed transitional services agreement to ensure a seamless handover of SMB's business to PF, effective as of the closing date and continuing for a period of three months, with an option to extend for a further three months at PF's option. Closing of the SMB acquisition is still subject to a number of conditions precedent, including PEMEX's waiver of their right of first refusal and SENER's approval of change of operatorship.

Company NewsAugust 18, 2026

Ecopetrol Completes Acquisition of a Controlling 51% Stake in Brava Energia S.A. and Strengthens Its Growth Platform in Brazil

(NYSE: EC) Ecopetrol S.A. announced that, through its wholly owned subsidiary Ecopetrol Investimentos do Brasil Ltda., it has completed the acquisition of a controlling interest equivalent to approximately 51% of the outstanding voting share capital of Brava Energia S.A. The aggregate consideration paid in connection with the Transaction was approximately US$1.2 billion. Ecopetrol Investimentos acquired 116,110,717 common shares of Brava, representing approximately 25% of Brava's outstanding share capital, through a voluntary tender offer. Ecopetrol Investimentos also acquired 120,813,490 common shares of Brava, representing approximately 26% of Brava's outstanding share capital, through a share purchase agreement dated April 23, 2026. Brava's estimated proved reserves (1P) as of December 31, 2025, are approximately 459 million barrels of oil equivalent, and estimated proved plus probable reserves (2P) are approximately 605 million barrels of oil equivalent. For the twelve-month period ended June 30, 2026, Brava reported revenue of approximately US$2.341 billion, EBITDA of approximately US$1.050 billion, and net income of approximately US$122.2 million.

Market CommentaryAugust 18, 2026

The Case for Britain Backing Its North Sea Oil and Gas Industry

Britain's potential backing of its North Sea oil and gas industry is a pivotal decision that could significantly influence global oil prices and the broader energy landscape. By prioritizing domestic production, the UK could enhance its energy security, reduce reliance on imports, and mitigate the volatility associated with global supply chains. This move would likely stabilize local job markets and attract investment, particularly in a time when energy transition strategies are under scrutiny. The juxtaposition of increasing domestic output against the backdrop of climate change initiatives highlights the complexity of energy policy; while the UK aims for net-zero emissions, the immediate need for reliable energy sources remains pressing. The development of fields like Jackdaw and Rosebank could provide a substantial boost to supply, potentially easing upward pressure on prices that often results from geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions. Additionally, producing oil and gas domestically could lower production emissions compared to importing from regions with less stringent environmental regulations, aligning with both economic and ecological goals.

Market CommentaryAugust 18, 2026

Forget $91 Brent, the Real Crisis is $170 Diesel

The assertion that $170 diesel represents a more pressing crisis than $91 Brent underscores a significant divergence in the oil market that could have profound implications for energy prices and the broader economy. Diesel, a critical fuel for transportation and industry, is experiencing a dramatic price surge that reflects not only supply constraints but also a growing demand for cleaner fuels in Europe, where regulations are tightening. This disconnect between crude oil prices and refined product prices suggests that while Brent may appear stable, the underlying market dynamics are far more precarious, driven by refinery capacity limitations and geopolitical tensions that disrupt supply chains. As diesel prices escalate, the cost of goods and transportation will inevitably rise, leading to inflationary pressures that could stifle economic growth. Moreover, the high diesel prices may prompt a shift in consumption patterns, pushing industries to seek alternative energy sources or invest in efficiency improvements, which could alter demand dynamics in the longer term. The situation is further complicated by OPEC's production decisions, which may prioritize crude output over refined products, exacerbating the diesel supply crunch. As European economies grapple with these rising costs, the potential for social unrest and political backlash increases, particularly in a region already sensitive to energy prices. Investors should closely monitor these developments, as sustained high diesel prices could trigger a reevaluation of energy strategies across sectors, influencing everything from transportation to manufacturing. Ultimately, the focus on diesel prices reveals a critical vulnerability in the energy market that could reshape the landscape for oil investors and policymakers alike.

Market CommentaryAugust 18, 2026

Gulf Oil is Escaping the Strait of Hormuz

The ability of Gulf oil producers to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant shift in the dynamics of global oil transportation and security, with profound implications for energy prices and market stability. As the Strait remains a critical chokepoint, responsible for approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply, any disruption there can lead to immediate price spikes and heightened geopolitical tensions. By developing alternative routes, such as overland pipelines and expanded port facilities, Gulf producers are attempting to mitigate the risks associated with potential blockades or military conflicts in the region. However, this diversification strategy introduces new vulnerabilities, as these alternative routes may not be as secure or efficient, potentially leading to increased transportation costs and logistical challenges. Furthermore, while this move could temporarily stabilize supply chains, it might also embolden regional adversaries to escalate tensions, knowing that traditional routes are less relied upon. In the short term, oil prices will experience volatility as markets react to these developments, with traders closely monitoring geopolitical signals and infrastructure security. Long-term, the shift could reshape OPEC's production strategies and influence global supply-demand balances, particularly if Gulf states can maintain consistent output levels without relying heavily on the Strait. The broader macroeconomic picture could also be affected, as changes in transportation dynamics may influence refining margins and the competitiveness of different crude grades. Ultimately, while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz may provide a tactical advantage, it also underscores the ongoing complexities and risks inherent in the geopolitics of oil, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant in assessing both physical supply routes and the political landscapes that govern them.