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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Market Commentary

A ‘Geologic Freak’ in Arkansas Is Big Oil’s New Lithium Bet

The electrification of the global economy is accelerating, and this trend is poised to significantly impact oil and energy markets. With COP 31 underway, the ambitious goal of achieving 35 percent global electrification by 2035 is now a focal point, reflecting a shift in energy priorities. This transition is driven by various factors, including the ongoing volatility in oil and gas markets, particularly influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the war in Iran. As major oil companies pivot towards lithium extraction in Arkansas, this represents a strategic bet on the future of energy, aligning with the growing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions. The emergence of lithium as a critical component in battery technology could reshape investment strategies within the oil sector, as companies seek to diversify their portfolios amid declining fossil fuel reliance. Investors should closely monitor how these developments affect oil prices, especially as traditional demand dynamics shift. The potential for increased lithium production could also lead to fluctuations in energy prices, as the market adjusts to the dual pressures of fossil fuel supply and the rising importance of alternative energy sources. As electrification efforts gain momentum, the implications for oil demand could be profound, potentially leading to a long-term decline in consumption patterns. Overall, the intersection of geopolitics, technological advancements, and environmental goals is creating a complex landscape for energy investors, necessitating a keen awareness of how these factors will influence market dynamics moving forward.

Market Commentary

API Shows Sharp Build in US Crude Oil, Distillate Inventories

Crude oil prices are under pressure following the American Petroleum Institute's report indicating a sharp build in US crude oil inventories, which rose by 9.0 million barrels for the week ending November 6. This significant increase comes on the heels of a decline of 5.267 million barrels the previous week, highlighting a volatile inventory trend. Over the past 30 weeks, commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), have decreased by more than 54 million barrels, with a net loss of 3 million barrels this year. The recent build suggests a potential shift in supply dynamics, especially as draws from the SPR have been a contributing factor to keeping inventories in check. Additionally, the release of 2.7 million barrels from the SPR during this period underscores the ongoing reliance on strategic reserves to manage supply levels. Investors should be cautious as this build could signal weakening demand or oversupply concerns, which may lead to downward pressure on prices in the near term. Distillate inventories are also likely affected, further complicating the market outlook. The interplay between these inventory levels and ongoing geopolitical tensions, alongside inflationary pressures and dollar fluctuations, will be critical in shaping future price movements. As the market digests this data, traders will need to closely monitor upcoming inventory reports and OPEC's response to these developments. Overall, the current inventory build raises questions about the sustainability of recent price gains and could prompt a reevaluation of bullish positions in the oil market.

Market Commentary

Certarus Expands into California with New CNG Hub Serving Customers from Southern California through the Bay Area

Certarus is making a significant move into the California market with the establishment of a new compressed natural gas (CNG) supply hub near Bakersfield, set to commence operations in the first quarter of 2027. This expansion marks Certarus' first permanent supply point in California, a state that has been increasingly focused on cleaner energy solutions. By serving customers from Southern California through the Bay Area, Certarus is positioning itself to tap into a growing demand for natural gas as a cleaner alternative to traditional fuels. This development could influence local energy prices, particularly as California continues to push for reduced emissions and greater reliance on natural gas. The establishment of this hub may also enhance supply chain efficiencies for businesses in the region, potentially stabilizing prices amid fluctuating demand. As the market adjusts to this new supply point, investors should monitor how it impacts the competitive landscape for natural gas in California. The move aligns with broader trends in the energy sector, where companies are increasingly investing in infrastructure to support cleaner energy sources. With California's stringent environmental regulations, the demand for CNG is likely to rise, which could lead to upward pressure on prices if supply struggles to keep pace. Overall, Certarus' expansion into California underscores the ongoing transition in the energy market towards more sustainable options, which could have lasting implications for both natural gas and oil prices in the region.

Market Commentary

Oil Prices Retreat as Peace Hopes Grow

Crude prices have retreated significantly as diplomatic hopes for peace in the Iran conflict gain traction, coupled with a resurgence in oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Brent crude briefly dipped below $90 a barrel, reflecting a broader selloff driven by expectations of de-escalation in the region. The global benchmark settled under $92 after a decline of up to 3.7% on Tuesday, marking a stark contrast to its nearly 50% increase earlier this year. Technical trading factors have exacerbated this downturn, with commodity trading advisers drastically reducing their long positions in both Brent and West Texas Intermediate to just 9%. This shift in sentiment is indicative of a market increasingly swayed by optimism regarding a potential diplomatic resolution. Additionally, US gasoline prices have fallen below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, signaling easing consumer costs. The decline in premiums for physical barrels and the reduced cost of hiring tankers further illustrate the market's shift towards lower prices. Despite ongoing tensions, oil shipments from the Middle East are approaching prewar levels, suggesting that supply is not as constrained as previously feared. President Trump's recent comments about winding down military actions, alongside the political pressure following the midterm elections, have contributed to this optimistic outlook. Iran's demands for the lifting of sanctions and the blockade of its ports remain contentious, but the overall sentiment is tilting towards a resolution. Investors should remain vigilant as the dynamics in the region continue to evolve, impacting both supply and demand fundamentals in the oil market.

Market Commentary

Freehold Royalties Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results and Expansion into the Duvernay, West-Central Alberta

Freehold Royalties has reported a solid third quarter for 2026, with total production reaching 15,758 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 10,275 barrels per day were crude oil and natural gas liquids, indicating a robust 65% liquids weighting. This strong production profile is significant as it underscores the company's focus on high-value liquids, which are currently benefiting from favorable pricing dynamics in the oil market. The company generated $100 million in royalty and other revenue, with over 91% derived from crude oil and natural gas liquids, highlighting the critical role of these commodities in its revenue stream. Funds from operations totaled $80 million, reflecting healthy cash flow generation that can support further investments and shareholder returns. Freehold's expansion into the Duvernay region of West-Central Alberta is particularly noteworthy, as this area is known for its rich resource potential and could enhance the company's production capabilities and profitability. Investors should consider how this strategic move may position Freehold to capitalize on future price increases in the oil market, especially as global demand continues to recover. The ongoing focus on liquids production aligns well with current market trends, where crude oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. As the company continues to optimize its operations and expand its footprint, it could see further gains in both production and revenue, which would be bullish for its stock performance. Overall, Freehold's results and strategic initiatives reflect a positive outlook for the company amidst a recovering oil market, suggesting potential upside for investors in the energy sector.

Market Commentary

Houthis Launch Another Attack on Pumping Stations Along Crucial Saudi East-West

Crude prices are likely to experience upward pressure following the recent missile attacks by the Houthis on key Saudi infrastructure, including pumping stations along the crucial East-West pipeline. Although Saudi authorities have not confirmed the extent of the damage, the mere threat to such vital assets raises concerns about supply disruptions in the world's largest oil exporter. The Houthi military spokesperson's claims of targeting significant facilities, including King Khalid International Airport and an Aramco site in Abqaiq, underscore the ongoing geopolitical risks in the region. Investors should be wary of potential retaliatory measures from Saudi Arabia, which could further escalate tensions and impact oil supply. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding these attacks may lead to increased volatility in oil markets as traders react to the evolving situation. With global demand remaining robust and OPEC's production cuts still in effect, any disruption in Saudi output could tighten the market further. The dollar's strength and inflationary pressures will also play a role in shaping investor sentiment, but geopolitical risks are likely to take precedence in the short term. As the situation develops, market participants should closely monitor any updates from Saudi authorities regarding the attacks and their implications for production levels. Overall, the combination of heightened geopolitical tensions and the potential for supply disruptions could support higher oil prices in the coming days.

Company NewsNovember 10, 2026

What Ranger Energy Services (RNGR) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Ranger Energy Services (NYSE:RNGR) reported softer-than-expected third-quarter results as customers tightened spending, lower-priced competitors won some work and employee medical costs rose. The company nevertheless generated enough cash to repay its acquisition-related revolving debt before closin

Company NewsNovember 10, 2026

What Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) generated approximately $2.8 billion in free cash flow during the third quarter of 2026 and reached its $10 billion principal debt milestone, prompting the oil producer to set a new target of $6 billion. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.91 per diluted sha

Company NewsNovember 10, 2026

Diamondback Energy and KKR to Acquire Deep Blue Midland Basin from Five Point Infrastructure

(NASDAQ:FANG) Diamondback Energy, Inc. and KKR (NYSE:KKR) have entered into an agreement to jointly acquire Five Point Infrastructure’s 70% stake in Deep Blue Midland Basin LLC (“Deep Blue”), a full-cycle water infrastructure platform in the Midland Basin. After the transaction, Diamondback and KKR will jointly own 100% of Deep Blue, with Diamondback building on its existing 30% ownership interest. Deep Blue was formed in 2023 as a joint venture between Diamondback and Five Point and operates an integrated water infrastructure network providing sourcing, transportation, storage, recycling, and disposal services. The Deep Blue system supports Diamondback’s core operations, which require the reliable transportation of nearly 2 million barrels of water per day. The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions. KKR’s investment in the transaction will be funded primarily through KKR Global Infrastructure Investors V. The partnership leverages Diamondback’s operational expertise and KKR’s experience in scaling energy sector businesses. Kaes Van’t Hof, Chief Executive Officer of Diamondback, stated that acquiring Five Point’s 70% interest secures critical water infrastructure capabilities for the long term and positions the partnership for growth, including potential expansion outside oil and gas through new technology and industrial use cases. James Cunningham, Partner at KKR, commented that Deep Blue is important for supporting energy production in the Permian Basin and that the investment is seen as a first step toward broader collaboration in essential infrastructure. The companies highlighted opportunities for further collaboration to meet the region’s evolving infrastructure needs. Diamondback is focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas.

Company NewsNovember 10, 2026

Eco Atlantic Oil Gas Npv Di — Completion of Namibian Portfolio Farm-down to BP

(LSE:ECO) Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas has completed the Namibian portfolio farm-down, with ministerial deeds signed on 9 November 2026. Eco will receive a one-time cash consideration of US$2.7 million on 16 November 2026 as part of the transaction. BP has acquired a 60% participating interest and operatorship in PEL97, PEL99, and PEL100. Eco retains a 25% participating interest across the three licences. BP will carry 100% of Eco’s 25% participating interest, as well as Eco’s proportionate share of NAMCOR’s 10% and local partners’ 5%, during the First Renewal Period. This arrangement substantially reduces Eco’s funding exposure for the period. A greater than 3,000 km2 3D seismic programme is imminent on PEL99 and PEL100, with reprocessing planned for PEL97. Put Options are in place that permit the transfer of an additional 10% participating interest for a capped carry of US$21 million per well, with an aggregate cap of US$63 million. The transaction structure provides Eco with significant financial flexibility and risk mitigation. The farm-down covers three licences: PEL97, PEL99, and PEL100. The First Renewal Period is the phase during which BP will provide the carry for Eco and its partners. The cash consideration and carry terms are designed to support Eco’s ongoing exploration and appraisal activities. The agreement includes mechanisms for further interest transfer via Put Options. The seismic and reprocessing work is expected to advance the technical understanding of the licence areas. The deal with BP marks a significant milestone in Eco’s Namibian exploration strategy.

Company NewsNovember 10, 2026

Sintana Energy Inc — PEL 82 Farm-Out

(LSE:SEI) Sintana Energy Inc. retains its unchanged indirect exposure to PEL 82 through its 49% interest in Custos, which itself holds a 10% participating interest in PEL 82. Chevron has agreed to sell a 25% interest in PEL 82 to QatarEnergy. Following this transaction, Chevron's stake in PEL 82 will decrease from 80% to 55%. NAMCOR's interest in PEL 82 remains at 10%. The Walvis Basin licence associated with PEL 82 covers an area of 11,450 km². Approximately 70% of the licence area has seismic coverage. Water depths in the licence area range from 350 to 2,300 meters. PEL 82 is currently in its exploration period. There are no reserves or resources attributed to PEL 82 at this time. Completion of the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals. The consideration for the transaction was not disclosed. Chevron will remain the operator of PEL 82 after the transaction. The company states that QatarEnergy’s entry into the licence materially endorses the prospectivity of PEL 82.

Company NewsNovember 10, 2026

Dcc Energy Plc — Results for the six months ended 30 September 2026

(LSE:DCC) DCC Energy reported adjusted continuing operating profit of £175.2m for the six months ended 30 September 2026, representing an increase of 1.1% year-on-year. Adjusted continuing earnings per share (EPS) rose by 25.6% to 120.5p. Revenue for the period was £7.29bn, up 20.2% compared to the prior year. The attributable loss widened to £269.2m, primarily due to a net exceptional charge of £371.1m, which included a £348.3m impairment related to Nexora. Free cash flow for the period was £96.1m. The rolling 12-month free cash flow conversion improved to 119%, up from 95% previously. Net debt excluding lease creditors increased to £828.0m, while net debt including lease creditors stood at £1,213.7m. Management committed £214m to acquisitions during the period, including the acquisition of Shell Mobility France. Shareholders approved a recommended acquisition of DCC Energy by a consortium led by Energy Capital Partners and KKR. No interim dividend will be paid for the period. The company highlighted the impact of exceptional charges on its results. The acquisition of Shell Mobility France was a significant transaction within the period. The increase in free cash flow conversion was noted as a positive operational development. The approval of the acquisition by the consortium marks a major corporate event for DCC Energy. The absence of an interim dividend was also disclosed as part of the financial update.

Company NewsNovember 9, 2026

Journey Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results; Expands 2026 Capital Program

(TSX:JOY) Journey Energy Inc. (OTCQX:JRNGF) announced its financial and operating results for the three and nine month periods ending September 30, 2026. The company generated sales volumes of 9,559 boe/d in the third quarter, with a product mix of 56% crude oil, 12% NGLs, and 32% natural gas. Net income for the quarter was $16.8 million, or $0.25 per basic share and $0.24 per diluted share. Adjusted Funds Flow reached $24.3 million, or $0.36 per basic share and $0.35 per diluted share. Journey closed the disposition of 1,170 boe/d of production in Northwest Alberta for proceeds of $28.0 million before closing adjustments. The company acquired a 0.98% working interest in the Keyera Rimbey gas processing facility and commissioned the 14 MW Gilby power project. Net debt was reduced to $48.4 million, 4% lower than at the beginning of 2026. Subsequent to quarter-end, Journey brought on 5.0 gross (1.5 net) Duvernay wells from the 01-19-43-3W5 pad through a new 30 MMscf/d compression facility (30% working interest), finished drilling a 4 well (1.2 net) pad at 02-22-42-4W5, and began drilling 5.0 gross (1.5 net) wells on the 10-19-41-3W5 pad. For the third quarter, sales revenue was $57,653,000, net income was $16,833,000, and adjusted funds flow was $24,329,000. Net capital expenditures for the quarter were $12,929,000, and net debt at quarter-end was $48,393,000. Average realized crude oil price was $103.87/bbl, natural gas $1.30/mcf, and NGLs $43.82/bbl. Operating netback was $35.47/boe. In aggregate since 2024, Journey has disposed of approximately 2,950 boe/d of non-essential assets, reducing asset retirement obligations by approximately $87 million. Capital expenditures before dispositions in Q2 2026 were $32.9 million, including $9.2 million for Duvernay facility development, $3.3 million for power, and $3.7 million for land. Net acquisition and divestment proceeds for Q3 were $20 million. Power expenditures included $3.3 million for commissioning at Gilby and engine overhauls at Mazeppa. Facility capital in Cherhill and Skiff was increased by approximately $3 million for pipeline integrity projects. In October, Journey added production from 4 gross (1.2 net) Duvernay wells, and in November from 1 gross (0.3 net) Duvernay well. October production was 9,965 boe/d (69% liquids). To date in 2026, 12 gross (3.0 net) Duvernay wells have been brought on, with another 4 gross (1.2 net) forecasted for year-end. Additional infrastructure and completion costs for the 02-22-42-4 pad and DUCs at 10-19-42-3W5 will result in an additional $15 million of capital net to Journey for 2026. Journey's net share of 2026 long-term Duvernay facility investments is estimated at $23 million. The original two 2024 Duvernay wells achieved payout in approximately thirteen months at average WTI prices of $64 USD/bbl. A $3.8 million realized hedging loss and a $7.0 million mark-to-market hedging loss were recorded in Q3 2026. Oil revenues represented 88% of total revenues in Q3 2026. The working interest in Keyera Rimbey is expected to generate approximately $0.7 million per year in third party processing revenue. Journey exited Q3 2026 with net debt of $48.4 million, down from $55.4 million at Q3 2025 and $50.6 million at the beginning of 2026. Adjusted Funds Flow per share was $0.36 basic and $0.35 diluted, up from $0.30 in Q3 2025. Net capital expenditures for Q3 2026 included $25.8 million for drilling, completion, equipping and tie-in, $3.3 million for power projects, and $8 million for the Keyera Rimbey acquisition.